Four days after a ceasefire agreement on May 10 helped pull India and Pakistan back from the edge of an all-out war, both countries have entered a new kind of battle — this time over who “won.” Each side is presenting its own version of victory after the tense military face-off.
The crisis began after gunmen killed 26 civilians in Pahalgam, located in Indian-controlled Kashmir, on April 22. A relatively unknown armed group known as The Resistance Front (TRF) claimed responsibility. India accused Pakistan of supporting the group, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to strike back — despite Pakistan’s denial of any involvement.
Following several diplomatic back-and-forths, the situation boiled over into military action. On May 7, India launched missiles at locations it described as terrorist camps — not just in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir but also four other places in Punjab province, Pakistan.
In the days that followed, both countries used deadly drones on each other’s territory and blamed each other for starting the attacks.
Tensions reached a peak on Saturday when both countries fired missiles directly at each other’s military bases. India initially hit three airbases in Pakistan, including one in Rawalpindi — where the Pakistani army’s headquarters is located. Pakistan responded by targeting Indian military sites near the border and in Indian-controlled Kashmir, reportedly hitting four facilities.
As fears of a full-blown war between two nuclear nations spread across the world, US President Donald Trump stepped in and announced a ceasefire, which he said was negotiated by the United States. Pakistan publicly appreciated the US effort, but India claimed the truce was arranged only between the two neighbours without any outsider’s help.
After the ceasefire was declared, both countries held press briefings, showing “proof” of their individual successes. On Monday, top military officials from both sides spoke on the phone and agreed to stick to the ceasefire.
But experts believe neither country came out of the post-April 22 conflict with a clear victory. They argue that while both sides may have scored some strategic wins, they also suffered setbacks.
Kashmir Grabs Global Attention: A Win for Pakistan
Like most of the past conflicts between India and Pakistan, last week’s standoff was rooted in their long-standing dispute over Kashmir.
Pakistan, India, and China all control different parts of the Kashmir region. India claims the entire area, while Pakistan claims only the part India currently controls — excluding the sections under China.
After their 1971 war, which led to Bangladesh becoming independent, both countries signed the Simla Agreement, committing to resolve their differences peacefully through direct talks.
Since then, India has maintained that the Kashmir issue should be addressed only between the two countries. Pakistan, however, keeps referring to UN resolutions, urging the global community to step in and help find a solution.
On Sunday, President Trump said the US was open to helping resolve the Kashmir issue. “I’ll work with both of you to see if we can finally find a solution to the Kashmir matter,” he said on his Truth Social platform.
Dr. Walter Ladwig, a lecturer at King’s College London, said the recent crisis helped Pakistan push its long-time agenda — bringing international attention to Kashmir.
“Islamabad welcomed third-party mediation, including from the US, and used the ceasefire as proof that outside involvement is necessary,” Ladwig explained.
On the other hand, he said, India was forced to accept a ceasefire led by an outsider, instead of ending the standoff by its own terms.
Sudha Ramachandran, editor for South Asia at The Diplomat, noted that the Indian government, under Modi, likely pleased its nationalist supporters through the military response. However, agreeing to the ceasefire may have cost them support from more hardline groups.
“They managed to impress their nationalist base, but the ceasefire didn’t sit well with those who wanted a more aggressive stance,” she said.
Focusing on Militancy: A Diplomatic Win for India
Still, experts argue that India also benefited from the conflict, especially by highlighting the threat of militant groups linked to Pakistan.
“India successfully redirected global attention to armed groups operating from Pakistani soil and increased the pressure on Islamabad to take serious action,” Ladwig said.
He noted that Pakistan’s reputation took another hit due to its association with militancy. Even though Pakistan denied any role and demanded independent investigations, international expectations now require it to show genuine efforts in counterterrorism.
India has long accused Pakistan of training and financing groups that push for Kashmir to break away from India. Pakistan insists its support is limited to political and moral backing.
Downed Aircraft: Possibly a Moral Victory for Pakistan
India claimed its May 7 strikes killed over 100 militants. Pakistan countered, saying Indian missiles hit mosques and homes, resulting in the deaths of 40 civilians — including children — and 11 soldiers.
Pakistan also said it launched fighter jets to defend itself and successfully shot down several Indian planes.
India didn’t directly confirm or deny the claim, but Pakistan’s military released what it claimed were proofs. Officials from France and the US confirmed that one French Rafale and one Russian-made aircraft were lost by India.
Indian authorities also told Al Jazeera that two planes crashed in its territory, though they didn’t specify whose they were. Since both sides said no planes crossed the border, experts believe the crashed jets were likely Indian.
According to Asfandyar Mir from the Stimson Center in Washington, this makes Pakistan’s claim of victory more credible. “The confirmed aircraft losses help Pakistan justify its side of the ceasefire deal,” he said.
Muhammad Shoaib, a security analyst at Quaid-i-Azam University, called India’s strikes a miscalculation. “They underestimated Pakistan’s ability to fight back,” he said.
However, Ladwig warned against overhyping Pakistan’s success, saying, “These are symbolic wins, not decisive military advantages.”
India’s Greater Military Reach: A Strategic Gain
Experts believe India achieved a significant military milestone during the crisis.
Apart from attacking targets in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, India also struck four locations deep inside Pakistan’s Punjab — the country’s most populous and economically important region.
Over the next 48 hours, India sent drones deep into Pakistan, including cities like Lahore and Karachi. On May 10, India also hit three Pakistani airbases deeper into Punjab than the bases Pakistan attacked in India.
In summary, India showed that its missiles and drones could go farther into Pakistan than vice versa. It marked the first time since 1971 that India had successfully struck targets in Punjab.
Ramachandran noted that India’s main goal was to show it could go beyond the Line of Control (LoC) and reach deep into Pakistan — a goal it successfully achieved.
Ladwig added that India’s ability to strike deep into Punjab was a serious blow to Pakistan’s defense confidence.
Will This Ceasefire Last?
During Monday’s phone conversation, both countries’ military leaders agreed to stick to the ceasefire and begin pulling back troops along the border. A second round of talks is expected soon.
However, Prime Minister Modi later commented that the ceasefire was just a “pause.”
Despite this, Mir from the Stimson Center believes the truce could last. “Both countries now see that continuing the fight may not be in their best interest,” he said.
Ladwig agreed, saying the ceasefire reflects shared interest in reducing tensions, even if it doesn’t fully resolve the conflict.
“India has changed the dynamics of this conflict. Now, it’s harder for Pakistan to deny responsibility for militant groups,” he said.
Dr. Shoaib from Quaid-i-Azam University, who also works with George Mason University, stressed that peace depends on ongoing dialogue.
He warned that tensions in Indian-controlled Kashmir and Pakistan’s Balochistan could still trigger future violence. Pakistan accuses India of backing separatists in Balochistan — a claim India denies — just as India accuses Pakistan of supporting rebels in Kashmir.
“Another round of violence could be far deadlier,” Shoaib said. “If both countries continue fighting without gaining anything meaningful, they’ll only end up harming civilians in cities.”
