Billionaire Elon Musk played a key role in backing President Donald Trump’s rapid reshaping of the federal government early this year, but he’s discovering that political momentum isn’t as easy to bend as business strategy.
Musk and his affiliated organizations poured $21 million into an effort to turn Wisconsin’s Supreme Court conservative, but their candidate lost by 10 percentage points on Tuesday. That was an even wider defeat than the other Republican on the statewide ballot, who wasn’t associated with Musk’s campaign funding.
Republicans had already viewed the race as an uphill battle, as Democrats have been highly mobilized in off-cycle elections since Trump took office. Yet Musk, known for betting against the odds, dove into the race using the same high-dollar tactics he used in the 2024 presidential election, helping Trump with more than $200 million in spending. The Wisconsin race became the most expensive judicial election ever—but ended similarly to conservatives’ double-digit loss in 2023.
According to Marquette University professor Charles Franklin, the result barely shifted the numbers and serves as a reality check: Trump’s influence alone may not be enough to sway November’s outcomes.
Democrat Susan Crawford, a Dane County judge, won the race and emphasized in her victory speech that Wisconsin voters rejected Musk’s money and attempts to influence the court. “Justice does not have a price,” she said.
This contest marked the first big test of Musk’s political sway. In Trump’s administration, he’s become a major figure, driving drastic cost-cutting measures and weakening federal agencies—moves that experts say challenge constitutional norms but have faced little resistance from Republican lawmakers.
Despite Trump’s growing grip on government power, Tuesday’s result reminded observers that voter backlash remains a potent force. Political scientist Brendan Nyhan noted that Trump’s strategy of targeting individuals and institutions has made it harder for opponents to unite—but signs are emerging that this may be changing.
With Trump endorsing conservative candidate Brad Schimel, the race turned into a national proxy battle, as the court could play a major role in redistricting and voting rights cases. Musk amplified the stakes, declaring on his social media platform X that the election could decide “the fate of Western civilization.”
America PAC, a Musk-backed super PAC, spent at least $6 million on canvassing efforts across Wisconsin, mirroring its strategy in key swing states during the presidential race. Still, the effort failed. Crawford even outperformed expectations in areas like Sauk County and Brown County—both previously carried by Trump.
After the loss, Musk claimed on X that the left was “corrupting the judiciary,” and suggested he had anticipated the defeat, seeing it as a strategic sacrifice.
Some Republicans questioned Musk’s aggressive involvement in a race they expected to lose. GOP strategist Marc Short wondered whether Musk’s public rallies helped or hurt.
Voters noticed Musk’s influence. One student in Milwaukee said Musk seemed to be trying to buy votes, while a retiree in Eau Claire criticized the overwhelming spending in a judicial election—even though he voted for Schimel to preserve Republican-drawn maps.
Musk even offered monetary incentives: $1 million to three voters for signing turnout petitions, $20 for volunteers posting canvassing photos, and $100 for each petition signer and referral. A lawsuit by the state’s Democratic attorney general was dismissed on a technicality.
Ultimately, Democrats were glad to make Musk a central issue. As Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler put it, “People do not want to see Elon Musk buying election after election. If he succeeds here, he’ll try it everywhere.”
